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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."