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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.